WW3 It Is Not
and there is no perfection in this world
This is not going to be particularly long.
I dislike endlessly expounding on rapidly developing situations because’…. well, because they are rapidly developing and things change.
Yesterday, on February 28th, two incredibly important things happened.
Let’s start with the most important one: my 12 year old son is now officially a big game hunter since we had an opportunity to take him on a management Aoudad ewe hunt. The little munchkin landed one perfect shot from 258 yards away and made me very proud.
The second most important thing that happened yesterday was the start of a massive attack on the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran.
I am obviously being a little facetious here as far as the importance levels go, but I somehow find it humorous that it was all going on at the same time.
We know with good degree of certainty that a few dozen top Iranian leaders, including the grand asshole himself, Ayatollah Khamenei, are now in hell realizing that they are on the wrong end of 72 virgins. Personally, I rather liked the late Robin Williams’ interpretation of the 72 virgin theory, but neither of us is a Koranic scholar:
We know that Iran has been shooting missiles at Israel and at several gulf countries. The extent of damages is not yet clear, but it does not appear to be militarily significant although there are certainly some very tragic civilian casualties.
The aerial war against the Islamic regime is likely to continue for several more days as US and Israeli forces continue to degrade or destroy IRI’s nuclear, missile and IRGC assets.
The invasion of foreign land troops on Iranian soil is extremely unlikely. This is a regime change operation, not a nation building operation. The apparent plan is to degrade the rule of the ayatollahs enough for the Iranian people to continue their uprising and overthrow the current Islamist government.
If there is a land invasion of any sort, it is more likely to be Turkey going after the Kurds in Iran, but even that is not super likely give how mountainous those areas are. Kurds are spread over an area where Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria meet and the Turkish government seems to be dreaming of doing to Kurds what they did to Armenians in early 20th century.
https://thekurdishproject.org/kurdistan-map/
How exactly it will develop is unclear, but the US and Israeli attack is likely to have been a reasonable gamble. What we do not know is who will end up in power after the dust settles. It appears that there is a line of succession in place, but US and Israel have been very good in thinning it out.
The way current power structures in Iran work, IRGC is pretty much in charge. It employes around 120 thousand people and it is essentially a private police/military/KGB-like apparatus for the ayatollahs. They want to stay in power because all of the economic struggles in Iran do not touch them. They do the dirty work on the national level.
A step below them is the Basij militia which appears to be mostly made up of religious fanatics and pretenders. They do the dirty work on the local level.
Artesh is the more traditional Iranian military and I have a strong suspicion that a lot will come down to what Artesh will decide to do. If it sides with the Iranian uprising and helps suppress Basij, Iran will take an important step away from being a pariah state.
Why is it a good idea to take out the ayatollahs?
There are many different reasons and it is a picture perfect example of several different goals aligning.
IRI has been an enemy of the United States since it took power in Iran in 1979. It has killed countless Americans and empowered terrorist organizations all over the world that have been attacking US and other western countries.
IRI is an existential threat to Israel. I do not think this needs a whole lot of additional detail.
IRI is a threat to other US allies in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain. I am not sure how much I trust those allies, but that’s a conversation for another day. Qatar deserves every missile Iran sends there.
If IRI is no more, Russia looses a key supplier of drones for their war in Europe. That helps Ukraine and our other European allies. That also helps establishing a stronger industrial base in Intermarium countries to offer an alternative to China.
If IRI is no more, China loses a key source of cheap oil that it needs to fuel its economy. Iran and Venezuela were a source of over 20% of oil going to China and prices much below market.
Essentially, this reduces Russia to being a rapidly dilapidating gas station for China. It also greatly inhibits Chinese claims to AI dominance since the AI race is likely to hit an energy shortage in the very immediate future.
Lastly, I have to mention the sympathy I have for the suffering Iranian people. However, from a geopolitical standpoint, I do not think anyone cares that much. They are getting an opportunity to take their country back. That’s not going to be easy and what they do with it is up to them. Reza Pahlavi is making proclamations from his bedroom in New York, but that’s all noise for now. Naturally, I do not know what negotiations are happening in the background. There are rumors floating around of several Iranian cities already falling out of IRGC control, but with a near total internet blockade it is hard to know what’s what. Again, I wish them well.
I can probably come up with a few other good reasons why taking out the ayatollahs is important, but I think this will suffice for now.
I think Trump deserves a lot of credit for having the cojones to do this. Many previous administration were just kicking the ball down the road. While I am not a fan of Trump’s rhetoric more than half the time, I keep on reminding myself that, unlike most of his predecessors, he is a President we should take seriously, but not literally.